Project overrun calculator

Forecast the effective hourly rate on a fixed-fee job by adding the hours already spent to the hours you still expect. Compare that rate with your floor, and see how many hours of cushion remain. The forecast uses only the numbers you type and never leaves your browser.

How to forecast a flat-fee project overrun

Mid-job, the useful question is not only “how many extra hours have I already worked?” but “if the remaining work takes as long as I now think, what rate does this fee turn into?” Forecast total hours are hours spent plus hours left. The forecast effective rate is the quoted fee divided by that total. Hours over plan are the forecast total minus the hours you originally estimated. If you enter a floor rate, the shortfall is that floor times the forecast hours, minus the fee, when the result is positive — the amount by which the fee fails to cover those hours at your floor. Hours of cushion left are the fee divided by the floor, minus hours already spent.

This is a forecast only in the sense that you supply the remaining hours. The page does not estimate tasks for you and it does not claim the job will finish on that number. If remaining work is uncertain, run the calculator once with a low estimate and once with a high one. If you only want to check hours already worked, the flat-fee overrun calculator is enough.

When the forecast rate is near or under the floor, added scope should usually be priced as a change order rather than folded into the original fee. You can build that price with the change order cost calculator. After the job is closed, the effective hourly rate calculator can include admin and revision time you did not put in the original estimate.

In the default example, a $4,800 fee planned at 40 hours, with 28 hours spent and 18 still expected, forecasts 46 hours and $104.35 an hour. That is 6 hours over plan. Against an $80 floor there is no shortfall, and 32 hours of cushion remain after the time already spent.

Want a monthly tool for this kind of check?

Flat-Fee Pricing Lab is $7/month and adds one practical pricing tool for fixed-fee work each month, with short scripts. Cancel anytime. There is also a free spreadsheet version of the basic overrun check.

See Flat-Fee Pricing Lab ($7/mo) Get the free spreadsheet version

Questions

How is a project overrun forecast calculated here?

Forecast total hours are hours already spent plus the hours you still expect. The forecast effective rate is the quoted fee divided by that total. The shortfall against your floor is the floor times forecast hours, minus the fee, when that figure is above zero.

What if I do not know the hours left?

Use a conservative estimate, or try two or three values. The page does not predict remaining work. If you only want to price hours already worked, the homepage overrun calculator is the simpler check.

Does a shortfall mean I should raise the fee?

It means the fee no longer covers those hours at the floor you entered. Whether you send a change order, narrow the scope or finish as quoted is a contract and client decision, not something this page can answer.